Vice President JD Vance told NBC News that Republican candidates face an "uphill climb" in November's midterm elections, with 31 days to go.
He made the admission in an exclusive interview with NBC News senior national political reporter Henry Gomez. The backdrop, per Gomez: President Donald Trump's approval ratings are quite low, and voters are unhappy about the war in Iran, gas prices, AI and data centers.
Vance described himself as cautiously optimistic, Gomez said. The numbers he has seen suggest things are "maybe" trending back toward Republicans.
Cautiously optimistic, plus a "maybe," is not a victory lap.
Gomez said Vance also lowered expectations on purpose. He pointed out that the midterms are traditionally a brutal year for the party that holds the White House and both chambers of Congress. Gomez said Vance is weighing all of that as he tries to drum up support for Republicans up and down the ballot.
Plainly: the person asked to raise the party's money is the one setting the bar low.
Gomez said Vance chairs the Republican National Committee's Finance Committee. He called it unprecedented for a sitting vice president to act as the national party's chief fundraiser. Vance has been traveling the country raising money and headlining rallies in key House districts and Senate states.
Gomez said Vance is probably going to places where Trump isn't welcome or wouldn't perform as well. Vance also went to Florida to campaign for Byron Donalds, the candidate for governor, and Sen. Ashley Moody. Gomez noted Florida has been trending redder over the last few cycles.
Trump's own pitch is less subtle. At a Texas campaign stop, he told voters, "Pretend I'm running, please," according to NBC's Meet the Press Now. He also said, "We're worried about Michigan. We're worried about Texas." And he warned that if Republicans don't win, "they'll end up impeaching me."
Then there is 2028. Vance is 42, and Trump is term limited. Gomez said Vance dodges the question every time. Asked whether a brutal midterm might make him decide against running, Vance declined to give a definitive answer. He did say he is collecting data as he decides, and that the midterm results will be new information he has to consider.
Vance seemed far more eager to talk about Sen. Ted Cruz, Gomez said. Cruz has been making noise about a possible presidential run, and Gomez said he is trying to engineer a rivalry with Vance. Vance told Gomez it is obvious Cruz is already running for president. His own line: "I'm out there campaigning for Republican candidates."
He did not rule out waiting for the November results first.