Iran reported no US strikes overnight on Saturday (July 25), according to Bloomberg — the first apparent break in a 13-day campaign of nightly attacks that had progressively expanded to target bridges and infrastructure deeper inside Iran following a collapsed ceasefire and renewed fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.
The pause coincided with a sharp escalation on a second front. Saudi-led forces struck Iran-backed Houthi targets in Hodeida on Friday (July 24) after the Houthis attacked multiple Saudi-linked tankers in the southern Red Sea. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced two "sensitive operations" targeting Saudi Arabia, vowing a "blockade for a blockade" would continue, Al Jazeera reported. Smoke was seen rising from a Saudi oil refinery in Jazan after reports of a Houthi missile strike and air defense activity.
Right-leaning financial site ZeroHedge reported that Brent crude surged 27% over two weeks to settle at $96.78 a barrel on Friday, briefly breaching $100 as traders priced war-risk premiums into energy markets amid simultaneous chokepoint threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. Goldman Sachs commodities expert Daan Struyven warned clients that Brent could top $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions persist, though he said that is not his base case. ING's Singapore-based head of commodities Warren Patterson said it would take "not much" for crude to exceed $120. JPMorgan warned that rising gas prices could push Trump toward Iran talks.
Trump said Friday he has not decided whether to conduct major strikes against Iran, while noting US-Iran talks are continuing through VP Vance, Secretary Rubio, and others.
Trump had previously told Axios he was considering a "massive attack" on Iran, saying the country "hasn't received enough pain yet" and is not ready to make a deal.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Saturday they stopped four ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours after firing warning shots. An LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew members was attacked in Iranian territorial waters on Friday; India's embassy confirmed the crew is safe. The US and UK are planning a high-level international conference in London next week to form a coalition protecting maritime shipping through Hormuz, according to two European diplomats and other sources.
Traffic through Hormuz is largely paralyzed, and Houthi threats are forcing tankers to reroute. A Hong Kong-flagged supertanker turned away before reaching Bab el-Mandeb and transited around the Cape of Good Hope. The Danish-flagged tanker Torm Innovation was rerouted from Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, through the Suez Canal and around Africa, carrying a 500,000-barrel cargo of Saudi naphtha to Japan; a Torm spokesperson cited crew safety as the highest priority. Rerouting adds weeks of sailing — a Yanbu-to-Taiwan voyage jumps from 19 to 48 days — and sharply increases freight, fuel, and insurance costs.
Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent warplanes to strike drone- and missile-storage depots inside Iran earlier this month, according to people familiar with the matter — their first direct retaliation against Tehran. China urged both Iran and the US to return to implementing their ceasefire memorandum, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressing deep concern at an SCO meeting in Kyrgyzstan on Friday. Pakistan is exploring a path toward resuming stalled US-Iran talks following a Chinese initiative, according to three Pakistani sources cited by Reuters. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions Friday on the network of Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, targeting four individuals and nine entities linked to sanctions evasion and digital asset exchanges.
No indication exists that the strike pause will extend into next week. The real question is whether gas prices force Trump's hand before he decides Iran has received enough pain.