Outside Republican groups are on track to spend more than $200 million to save Ken Paxton in Texas, and Republicans fear it still won't be enough, Politico reports.
The prior context: Paxton, backed by Trump, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Most public polling over the past two months shows Democrat James Talarico with an edge.
The new part is the panic. Politico, citing three people with direct knowledge who were granted anonymity, reports that senior Hill Republicans and GOP officials have privately nudged President Donald Trump's team to spend more before it's too late. Their fear is that MAGA Inc. won't commit beyond current ad bookings, which run out Oct. 12.
Developing, unverified: whether MAGA Inc. will spend past Oct. 12. A Trump operative told Politico the team is still assessing how much more to send, and would not commit to any plans.
Here are the numbers Politico lays out. MAGA Inc. and affiliates are expected to spend near $45 million on direct mail, TV and digital through Oct. 12, up from a previous $20 million. The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), the top GOP Senate super PAC, put in another $60 million, bringing its Texas total to a record $131 million. Paxton's own campaign just announced a $20 million ad buy.
Republicans are not describing this as a healthy investment.
"It's a five-alarm fire, no doubt," one GOP senator told Politico. A Republican strategist in the state went further:
This is a slow-moving car crash that we're witnessing right now.
That strategist put the odds of a result "catastrophic from a GOP Senate majority standpoint" at 75%.
Paxton is part of the problem. Politico says fears escalated after audio leaked, reported by The New York Times, of Paxton telling donors that "everybody's numbers dropped" after Trump's GOP convention in Dallas. "Sometimes, I think [Paxton] wants to lose," another GOP senator told Politico.
Trump said he hadn't talked to Paxton about the comments. He also told a Texas crowd that Paxton "can be a pain in the ass sometimes. I'll be honest."
Then there's the zero-sum problem. GOP operatives in Michigan and New Hampshire told Politico some of the Texas cash should be going to their states. An ally of former Sen. John E. Sununu, who is in a tight race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, said: "We've never had a problem in Texas. Let's focus on taking back a seat we haven't had in years."
Trump himself nodded to it at a rally in Oklahoma: "We're worried about Michigan. We're worried about Texas."
SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham says Texas PAC "will not take resources from our other ongoing investments across the Senate map." Chief of staff Susie Wiles told Senate Republicans there will be enough money for competitive races, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting.
Money this size doesn't get spent to win a seat. It gets spent to avoid losing one.
So is it working? Paxton's campaign released an internal poll showing him up 48% to 45% among likely voters. One Texas Republican elected official told Politico: "all this spend hasn't changed anything."
Trump has a San Antonio rally scheduled. The ad bookings run out Oct. 12, and the Trump operative would not commit to anything past that.